Derek Carr, Fresno State
Projected Height: 6026 (6'3" via school site)
Projected Weight: 215 (218 via school site)
Projected 40 time: 4.7 (4.56 via school site)
-Three year starter and team captain.
-2011: Academic All-WAC, All-WAC (2nd)
-2012: MW OPOTY, All-MW (1st), Academic All-MW
-Brother of former first round pick David Carr.
-He was recruited by the Pat Hill staff, but now runs a much more open offense than the one he was recruited for. I'm not completely sure that it's not second to worst offense (besides the GT/Navy/etc. triple-option) for his skill set. A lot of his problems stem from the offense. Much more important to get the ball out quickly in that offense than to get footwork correct. One example is against San Diego State, when he threw a 30+ yard ball in empty with six men rushing.
-High football IQ. Looks great pre-snap. Able to make calls at the line of scrimmage instead of relying on sideline posters. Almost telegraphs the first read by scanning that side of the field pre-snap. Manipulative in that way, though. vs Rutgers he showed the tendency to scan the first read pre-snap, right up until the red-zone drive to end the first half, when he switched it up, and tried to catch the defense cheating. Most of his reads are half-field reads, due to the few progressions in the quick-strike offense, but I wouldn't question that aspect of his game.
-Not great on the move (passing chart at the end of the piece illustrates that), but he's mobility isn't in question. More so that his footwork isn't amazing when he's outside of the pocket (or in it for that matter). Reportedly ran a 4.59 his freshman year at Fresno State, and clocked in at 4.56 in 2012.
-Many claim he's "scared of the rush", but I don't think that's true. A lot of these spread QBs rely on their arm to make plays quickly, instead of having to get their feet set before the throw. This may not translate to the NFL, but it's a product of their college systems that you can ding them for, but I don't think you should hold completely against them. If he was scared of the rush, he'd leave the pocked much more often than he does (like Gabbert used to do) or drop his eyes on the move. He does neither of those very often. I do wonder if there's a bit of a Brian Brohm type of situation going on there. When Brohm arrived in Green Bay there were rumors that he valued his family's opinion on his quarterbacking over than anyone else's, including the coaches. Some similar rumors swirled around his brother David in Houston, too. Carr appears to be one of the guys that would benefit the most from visiting QB guru George Whitfield, but seems to be the only one that hasn't. It might be a moot point, but it's something I question.
-More of a gun-slinger than someone who drops passes into buckets. Ball placement isn't the greatest. Inconsistency with hanging balls a little bit deep (although he has great velocity and a plus arm) and hitting guys in stride. Some issues with low balls on outside screens, too. Not a knock on his arm by any means (once threw a 60 yard ball that looked effortless on his part). Most of this can likely be attributed to his footwork. When he steps through his throws (which honestly doesn't happen all that much), he looks great and flashes ball placement.
-Anticipates very well and has a fast trigger. If the defense gives him anything, he'll find it and get it there quickly.
-Has every tool to succeed, but needs a coach to refine his talents.
Interesting video clips:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=mfBRAUPx8GU#t=43
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=mfBRAUPx8GU#t=105
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=mfBRAUPx8GU#t=284
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=mfBRAUPx8GU#t=418
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=TUD7A7YXX0s#t=111
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=TUD7A7YXX0s#t=526
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=TUD7A7YXX0s#t=650
Key:
S: Standing in pocket
O-R: On the run/outside of the pocket, right
O-L: On the run/outside of the pocket, left
5+: Five or more pass rushers
RZ: Attempts with the ball snapped in the red zone
EZ: Targets in the end zone
3rd/4th: Third and forth down
Games Tallied: Rutgers, Boise State, and San Diego State. All video via DraftBreakdown.com
Grade: Early to mid first round (5-18)
Recent comparison: former Georgia QB Matthew Stafford
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